Mk: If the conspiracy theory (whichever one) is right, they may have tried all that first. Also, war itself generally generates wealth by driving up domestic production, so I'm not sure if it would be "cheaper" in the long term to go to war or try to negotiate a contract. Also, war justifies our large-scale military presence in the Middle East, whereas just negotiating with Saddam doesn't (even if he welcomed it with open arms). Note that I'm not arguing for any particular conspiracy theory (nor do I embrace any of them), only pointing out that your counter-examples already assume the absence of a conspiracy and cannot therefore be used as a litmus test to disprove conspiracy theories.
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Re: Test for Conspiricy Theories.
Mk: If the conspiracy theory (whichever one) is right, they may have tried all that first. Also, war itself generally generates wealth by driving up domestic production, so I'm not sure if it would be "cheaper" in the long term to go to war or try to negotiate a contract. Also, war justifies our large-scale military presence in the Middle East, whereas just negotiating with Saddam doesn't (even if he welcomed it with open arms). Note that I'm not arguing for any particular conspiracy theory (nor do I embrace any of them), only pointing out that your counter-examples already assume the absence of a conspiracy and cannot therefore be used as a litmus test to disprove conspiracy theories.